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Since 1979JCPOAJCPOAYour browser does not support the element.By Nick Pelham, Middle East correspondent, The Economist , the Islamic republic of Iran has brandished four core slogans: death to Israel, death to America, export the Islamic Revolution and “cover or suffer”, an injunction for women to veil. The regime’s resolve to implement them has waxed and waned, but it has never formally abandoned them. Without them, supporters of Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, the 85-year-old supreme leader, might ask, what remains of the Islamic republic?The question now, though, is will Donald Trump accept anything less? Iran was not destined to clash with Mr Trump when he took office in 2017. He said he wanted a better deal than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (), negotiated by Barack Obama in 2015. Mr Trump sought restraints on Iran’s regional proxies, but what he wanted most was a photo-op with Mr Khamenei, like the one he staged with North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong Un.Much anguish might have been spared had Mr Khamenei flattered Mr Trump and hosted him in Tehran. Iran’s currency might have soared; its economy could have flourished, free of sanctions. But, even though Mr Khamenei has been in power three times as long as Iran’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the ghost of the founding imam still haunts him. So he retorted that Mr Trump was “not worthy of any message exchanges”. His presidential vanity dented, Mr Trump withdrew from the , enforced an oil embargo and had Iran’s most senior general, Qassem Suleimani, assassinated. In response, Iran accelerated its nuclear programme to the point of becoming a threshold state, and vowed revenge. The American government brought charges on November 8th against a man in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate Mr Trump before the election. Does Mr Khamenei regret his decision? His allies and his economy are weaker now. Since 2016, the rial’s value against the dollar has fallen by over 95%. Mr Khamenei has swapped hardliners for pragmatists. The supreme leader has also retreated on all four of his slogans. His president, Masoud Pezeshkian, speaks of a ceasefire and de-escalation with Israel. Mr Khamenei has signalled readiness to be friends with America. Iran is loosening its dependence on its regional proxies. And it has relaxed the enforcement of the veil. But unless Iran agrees to abandon its regional ambitions many in Mr Trump’s circle will want him to tighten sanctions and the oil embargo. Some will urge him to push for regime change. As he enters his second term, Mr Trump appears unconvinced. America, he said recently, must make a deal with Iran because the consequences of not having one were “impossible”. If Iran abandons its drive for nuclear weapons, Mr Trump said as he cast his vote on November 5th, “I’d like them to be a very successful country.” The question now may be whether Mr Khamenei can stomach that photo-op.
