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As 2025 dawnsstartstartnatostarticbmslbmicbmicbmYour browser does not support the element.By Anton La Guardia, Diplomatic editor, The Economist , the world is moving further into what many are calling the third nuclear age. It will probably feature more nuclear weapons, more nuclear-armed states, no limits on their arsenals and few qualms about threatening to use them.The first nuclear era was terrifying enough. America and the Soviet Union confronted each other with tens of thousands of warheads each. The second era, after the end of the cold war, was calmer. Nuclear stockpiles shrank dramatically—though India, Pakistan and North Korea went nuclear during this period. The third age may resemble a new cold war, only more chaotic and with more potential foes.Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons, marked a milestone towards this new era. So did Xi Jinping’s decision to expand China’s nuclear arsenal, which the Pentagon has warned about since 2021.Another big moment will probably come in 2025, when Donald Trump must decide how to respond. New , the last arms-control treaty limiting nuclear armaments, expires in February 2026. Should America seek a follow-on deal with Russia? There is little prospect of a new arms-control agreement given that Russia has already suspended vital provisions to verify compliance with New . As for China, it is bound by no such requirements, and has halted what little dialogue it had with America on the issue. For the first time in decades, then, nuclear stockpiles will probably no longer be subject to formal limits.The old two-power deterrence game will turn into a more complex three-sided rivalry in which two countries—Russia and China—work ever more closely. It may be more bewildering still, given that North Korea, which has nuclear weapons, and Iran, which is on the threshold of being able to acquire them, are drawing closer to Russia and China. Other countries may seek their own nukes if America under Mr Trump is seen as an unreliable protector. Saudi Arabia says it will go nuclear if Iran does. South Korea has recently debated developing its own deterrent. Ukraine suggests it might do so if it cannot join .America and Russia have more than 5,000 warheads each. Both say that they are abiding by New ’s limits on “strategic”, or long-distance, nuclear weapons. Each is allowed to deploy 1,550 strategic warheads and 700 launchers, such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (s), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (s) and long-range bombers. The rest of the stockpile, including smaller “tactical” nukes and in storage, is not restricted. The Pentagon projects that China’s stockpile, currently about 500 warheads, will exceed 1,000 by 2030, and perhaps 1,500 by 2035. Britain, France, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea have much smaller arsenals.Mr Trump, scornful of arms control and fond of his “nuclear button”, may well seek a build-up. The first move would be to “upload” nuclear weapons—ie, shift warheads from reserves to deployed systems. This would involve modifying bombers, adding extra warheads to s and unsealing launch tubes on Ohio-class submarines. Officials are drawing up plans to do so. Expect the new president to allow the Pentagon to hold exercises to show the ability to upload quickly, as recommended by a bipartisan commission report in 2023. Plans for a submarine-launched cruise missile carrying nuclear weapons—approved by Mr Trump, shelved by President Joe Biden and reinstated by Congress—will get a boost.A bad idea doing the rounds in Mr Trump’s entourage is to resume nuclear testing, which the big powers halted in the 1990s. Even hawkish American nuclear experts who favour a build-up think testing is pointless chest-thumping. But America will come up against hard problems if it seeks to expand its actual stockpile. Its defence industry has little spare capacity. Efforts to modernise land-, sea- and air-based weapons are suffering from delays and cost overruns. Most egregious is the Sentinel programme to replace Minuteman III s, which, at $141bn, is 81% over budget. If the new president decides to join the new nuclear-arms race, it will take time to gather speed.
