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Since declaringMOUMOUSSCYour browser does not support the element. independence from Somalia in 1991, the people of Somaliland have built a surprisingly stable democracy in a volatile region where autocracy is the norm. Yet no country has recognised the breakaway state’s claim to sovereignty. Geopolitical developments in the past year and Donald Trump’s victory have raised the hopes of Somalilanders that this may soon change. But their nerves have been jangling ahead of a presidential poll on November 13th, since internal ructions could kibosh their national dream.The election pits Muse Bihi Abdi, the current president, against Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, better known as Irro, who leads the opposition Waddani party. With no reliable opinion polls, observers reckon the race will be close, raising a risk of violence after the result is declared.Mr Bihi campaigned on the promise that he would secure recognition for his state, based on a memorandum of understanding () Somaliland and Ethiopia signed on January 1st. In return for recognition, Somaliland agreed to lease a strip of its coastline on which its landlocked neighbour could build a naval base (see map). This incensed Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its own territory, and raised tensions in the Horn of Africa. America, which under President Joe Biden expanded support for Somalia, is understood to have lobbied for the deal to be scrapped.Mr Trump may take another line. He is said to view America’s past support for Somalia as a bad deal. At the end of his first term he pulled nearly all American troops out of the country. Some Africa experts in his orbit say Somaliland would be a more dependable ally than an unstable Somalia. It could also offer America, which has a military base in nearby Djibouti, another one on the Red Sea. “If Ethiopia proceeds to execute the , I think [recognition] is a matter of time,” says J. Peter Pham, who served in Mr Trump’s first administration and may be in contention for the second.Yet Somaliland’s internal cohesion has frayed under Mr Bihi. His critics say he has eroded the tradition of relative political tolerance that is credited with helping to keep the peace among its fractious clans. When local leaders in the eastern city of Las Anod rebelled last year against the government in Hargeisa, the capital, he cracked down when he might have compromised. The result was a brief civil war in which Somaliland’s national army suffered a humiliating defeat. Swathes of territory around Las Anod remain under the control of -Khaatumo, a rival militia-backed movement that has called for a separate statelet within a federal Somalia.More violence would tarnish Somaliland’s reputation for stability, the premise for its case for recognition. Both Mr Bihi and Irro say they will accept the election result. But not everyone takes the president’s word at face value after the Las Anod conflict. And Irro’s supporters are mostly drawn from a powerful clan that feels marginalised by Mr Bihi’s group. Many will be spoiling for a fight, should the chance to rule be denied them. “People are trying hard to keep the peace,” says Guleid Jama, a human-rights lawyer in Hargeisa. “If things go wrong, it could be the end of Somaliland.”
