The transition to a better Cuba will not be easy

And Donald Trump could make it harder


  • by
  • 12 1, 2016
  • in Leaders

FIDEL CASTRO was many things to many people (see ). As Cuba mourns him, his fans offer praise for how he stood up to the United States in the name of Cuban independence and provided world-class health care and education to poorer Cubans. But his achievements were outweighed by his drab legacy. Much of that human capital was wasted by his one-party system, police state and the stagnant, centrally planned economy. Cubans say Mr Castro was “like a father “ to them. They are right: he infantilised a nation. Anyone with initiative found ways to leave for exile abroad.This is the baleful legacy that Raúl Castro, Fidel’s younger brother and successor as president since 2008, must deal with. He has been trying to reform the economy, allowing small businesses, promoting private farming and welcoming some foreign investment. But he has been as determined as his brother to keep Cuba’s one-party system intact. And his cautious economic progress has now almost ground to a halt. That coincided with the thawing of the cold war between Cuba and the United States, with the restoration of diplomatic ties after 54 years in 2015. The big question, then, is whether Fidel’s death means that reform in Cuba will resume. The answer is probably yes, but not immediately. And the fate of Cuba, as ever, will be shaped partly by what happens in Washington.

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