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The crew NATO EUEU NATOEUMAGA EUEU Your browser does not support the element.of a boat whose rudder has fallen off can do little but pray for calm weather and a speedy way to safe harbour. Democracies caught in political gales similarly hope for more placid times as they work out how to chart a new course. Alas, Europe finds itself in the midst of a perfect storm. Not only is its economy facing stiff headwinds; voters are routinely tossing their leaders overboard, and war on the continent has rocked the boat for three years now. Amid these heavy waters, an even more concerning prospect is focusing minds. A superstorm of uncertain severity—call it the Trumpnado—seems to be headed straight in this rickety craft’s direction. All hands are on deck to try to limit the damage. But the prospects for plain sailing look as distant as ever for the good ship Europe.Navigators worry most about sailing uncharted waters. But Europe is actually familiar with the treacherous seas that await it come January 20th, when Donald Trump will be sworn in as America’s president. A nativist, America-first president will again fray the links that bind the two main parts of the West, and the international order the Atlantic alliance struggles to uphold. In 2017 Europe somehow managed to stay on course. But Mr Trump’s first term came under favourable conditions for Europe: its undisputed captain, Angela Merkel of Germany, had been at the helm for over a decade and its economy had entered calmer seas after the choppy years of the euro-zone crisis. Even so, it struggled. In 2019 Emmanuel Macron, France’s president (and, like Charlemagne, a fan of metaphors) told that Europe was teetering on the edge of a precipice, and that was “brain-dead”.Europe is in far worse shape as it awaits its second dose of Trumpism. Politics are at their most chaotic in years. Germany is headed to the polls on February 23rd, and will probably dump Chancellor Olaf Scholz—but a new government is unlikely to be in office before late April. France is facing its deepest political crisis in recent memory. A new government led by François Bayrou may prove longer-lasting than the previous one, which sank after a mere three months, but seems hardly seaworthy. Poland, another one of the European Union “bigs”, is due to elect a president in May. Should the candidate favoured by Donald Tusk, the liberal prime minister, fail to win, several years of paralysis could ensue. Belgian politicians are still haggling to form a government more than 200 days after elections were held. What political strength exists is hardly of the reassuring sort. A slew of hard-right politicians, including Herbert Kickl in Austria and Viktor Orban in Hungary, seem intent on capturing or scuttling the . They are being overtly supported by Mr Trump and his acolyte Elon Musk; space has been found for several nationalist European politicians to attend the inauguration in Washington. In recent years the most stable part of the continent’s political apparatus has been its central institutions in Brussels. But Trumpians hate the supranational Eurocracy. Worse, its figurehead Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has spent the first half of January hobbled by pneumonia, including a discreet stint in hospital.This is not a good time for Europe to take on foreign adversaries. Yet it now faces three global geopolitical powers at the same time. Russia is the most menacing, following up its big-gun salvo in Ukraine with cable-cutting in the Baltic. China and the have been edging towards a trade war; Europeans also resent China’s support for Russia in Ukraine. Mr Trump now promises a trade war of his own, along with vague threats against (unless its members spend vastly more on defence) and outlandish provocations towards Greenland. Tech titans who have the ear of the president want him to neuter European regulations on social media. The mood below Europe’s decks is grim. A poll of 24 countries by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, shows many places including India and Russia think Mr Trump’s return is good news. Europeans in contrast are panicked.The ’s leaders know they need to chart a new common course—but do not yet agree what that might be. For Mr Macron, what matters is the “strategic autonomy” of Europe, meaning its ability to get stuff done without American support, for example by ensuring the continent develops its own military kit. Others, notably in central Europe, think that is delusional: to them it is clear America will be, for the foreseeable future, indispensable to guaranteeing the continent’s security. Buttering up the crowd by buying American jets and missiles is the surest way to show Mr Trump that Europe is a worthy ally.Through the pelagic fog, are there signs of hope? Perhaps. Mr Trump’s team has given up trying to end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours”, as he had repeatedly promised on the campaign trail. A rushed end would have favoured Russia, which currently has the upper hand militarily. Mr Trump still wants to impose a peace on both sides quickly, but is alluding to looser timelines—100 days, or even six months. Europeans are trying to persuade him that abandoning Ukraine would be a replay of America’s hasty retreat from Afghanistan under his predecessor, Joe Biden: a failure that would highlight American impotence.Mr Trump’s arrival may yet lead to Europeans finally rowing in the same direction. On February 3rd the ’s 27 leaders will meet at an informal retreat outside Brussels to discuss defence. The bloc has belatedly agreed that far more needs to be spent on military preparedness. (Sir Keir Starmer, prime minister of a former member and former great maritime power, will attend too.) By then the Trumpnado may have struck, or remain just a threat. Either way the choice facing Europe is simple: sink or swim.