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No sooner hadirgcPMFiriPMFiriiripmfpmfpmfYour browser does not support the element. it unleashed the first of its drones at Israel on November 8th than the Iraqi militia published an image of missiles streaking through the sky. Israel said its aerial defences had thwarted the attack by al-Nujaba (“the Nobles”). “Big surprises in the coming hours,” the group promised—in Hebrew as well as Arabic: “God willing, many events”.Most of the Middle East’s rulers, including those of Iran’s allies, would prefer God has other plans. Iraq has been doing rather well of late. It is at last using its oil revenues to fund infrastructure, not sectarian wars or foreign slush funds. Violence is at its lowest level since America’s invasion. Its officials are desperate to sidestep Israel’s conflict with Iran.But their efforts are hamstrung by a lack of control over their own turf. Israel says Iran is funnelling fresh stocks of long-range missiles and explosive drones to its militias there. Iran is furious that America let Israel use Iraq’s airspace to bomb it. Iraq could be the next country to be pulled into Israel’s regional war.For now, Iraq is relying on diplomacy to save it. On November 10th its national security adviser went to Iran for talks with the Quds Force, the foreign-operations arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (), Iran’s praetorian guard. He urged its boss to leave Iraq out of any Iranian plans to attack Israel in retaliation for its air strikes on October 26th. That same day Iraq’s prime minister, Muhammad al-Sudani, met the Saudi crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, in Riyadh to discuss how to prevent the war from spreading. Meanwhile, the country’s top cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, told the Iraqi state to take control of the militias’ weapons.But Iran fears that Israel’s attacks on its air-defences and its proxies, long seen as its first line of defence, have left it exposed. Until recently, it demonstrated what it called “strategic patience” and absorbed Israel’s blows. But Israel’s strikes on Hizbullah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, and its invasion of Lebanon have taught Iran that restraint looks weak and only invites further aggression. Mindful that Israel struck back after it fired two rocket salvos from Iran, Iranian officials hope that using Iraq would spare their country from an Israeli counter-attack. And because Iraq is closer to Israel, Israel’s air-defences would have less time to intercept a strike.Until recently, Israel looked to American forces on land and sea to deter Iran-backed militias in places such as Iraq and Yemen. But its routing of Hamas and Hizbullah, and its air strikes on Syria, have emboldened its leaders to target the rest of Iran’s “axis of resistance”. Israeli security men talk of a pre-emptive strike before Iraqi militias unleash their “big surprises”.Iran has two bands of allies in Shia-dominated Iraq. The first are the Shia factions that it began to build up after America toppled Iraq’s dictator, Saddam Hussein, in 2003. In elections since then, they have captured the Iraqi state. With Iran’s help in 2014 they formed the Popular Mobilisation Force (), a group of Iraqi state-financed militias.But as these blocs were increasingly driven by homegrown Iraqi interests, Iran sponsored new paramilitaries, like al-Nujaba, under its direct command. After Israel invaded Gaza, Iran helped create the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (), another umbrella of militias which Iran pays and supplies. It has since lobbed dozens of rockets and drones at Israel and attacked American bases. Israel’s killing of Hamas and Hizbullah commanders has left a vacuum in Arab leadership of the axis. Some Iraqi militiamen might be eager to fill it. Iraqis have long sought to rid their country of foreign forces, both American and Iranian. They have failed to do either. So instead of separating from America or Iran, Iraq’s factions prefer to stay out of the fight. The ’s commanders have assured Mr Sudani that they will not use their weapons or fighters on the state payroll to attack Israel. Were Israel to limit its attacks to the and avoid hitting population centres, the fallout in Iraq could be limited, though it might be harder to contain if Israel struck near Iraq’s Shia shrine cities where the has a presence, or if it hit the . Privately, some Shias might even cheer a strike on the non- militias. “These groups are just criminals and thieves,” says a graduate of one of Mr Sistani’s seminaries. “All Iraqis know they are just employees of Iran.”America also wants to peel Iraq away from Iran’s influence. On November 11th American forces struck pro-Iranian militias in Syria, near the Iraqi border. Donald Trump, once he is president, might go further. During his last term he ordered the killings of the ’s then commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and Iran’s top general, Qassem Suleimani, in Baghdad. No less worrying for Iraq, Mr Trump’s advisers may be considering sanctions against it. Since 2003, Iraq has deposited its oil revenues in an escrow account in New York. Mr Trump, says an Iraq-watcher recently in Washington, might have that in his sights.
