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GHANA HASIMF GDPIMFYour browser does not support the element. long been a trailblazer in African politics. One of the first countries on the continent to win its independence, in 1957, the west African country led the way in ditching dictatorship for democracy in the 1990s. Since then, it has been an example of relative political and economic stability in a highly unstable environment. It has taken a big part in regional diplomacy and has proved a reliable ally for America and Europe, even as many of its neighbours have turned against their erstwhile Western backers.Yet as Ghanaians go to the polls to elect a new president and parliament on December 7th, this hopeful legacy is being threatened by economic strife, democratic backsliding and instability elsewhere in the region. The dissatisfaction of Ghana’s 34m people with their economy and democracy matters far beyond its borders.The election is happening in the wake of what is likely to be remembered as the worst economic crisis in the country’s democratic history. The government of Nana Akufo-Addo, the president, was elected with a mandate to bring the economy back from the brink. But it has proved a huge disappointment, borrowing heavily and presiding over a debt default in 2022. The ensuing bailout (Ghana’s 17th) entailed a restructuring not just of external liabilities but also, painfully and unusually, of domestic debt.It went some way towards stabilising the economy, with the debt-to- ratio falling from 92.7% in 2022 to a still eye-watering 82.5% today. But it wiped out a chunk of Ghanaians’ savings and pension pots. This angered the middle class, which had put its money into government-backed investments it had considered safe. Adding to the pain, the cedi weakened against the dollar for most of Mr Akufo-Addo’s tenure, compounding economic pressure on a country that depends on imports for consumer goods. Inflation, which hit 23% in November, continues to rise. “It sometimes feels very difficult to go on in life,” says Vicky, a 25-year-old saleswoman.The economic malaise is a big problem for Mahamudu Bawumia, the ruling National Patriotic Party’s presidential candidate. As Mr Akufo-Addo’s vice-president and the boss of his economic management team, Mr Bawumia has found it tricky to shrug off responsibility for the crisis.Meanwhile, John Mahama, the candidate for the opposition National Democratic Congress, who was president between 2012 and 2016 and is on the ballot for the fourth time, is trying to sell his experience as a basis for a fresh start. “My focus is to come and reset Ghana,” he says. “We have the experience of pulling our country out of adversity.” Yet he lost the election in 2016 amid blackouts, inflation and a collapsing currency. The excessive borrowing that led to Ghana’s recent default began during his time in office.Neither candidate has a convincing plan for reviving the economy, though both will be bound by the deal, reducing their room for manoeuvre. Voters sound unimpressed by both men. “I don’t trust them—they’re all liars,” says Anthony, a 48-year-old who sells bags in a market in Accra, the capital. Even so, the current government’s poor record, a global trend against incumbents and Ghana’s history of tight elections is said to be giving Mr Mahama the edge against Mr Bawumia.Mr Mahama may also be hoping to capitalise on voters’ concerns about Mr Akufo-Addo’s increasingly authoritarian tendencies. The outgoing president’s cabinet once contained more than 120 ministers and deputies, making it the most bloated in Ghana’s history. He made his cousins cabinet ministers, appointed partisans to the electoral commission and curbed the freedom of the local press, which he has barely talked to since 2021. Copying his boss, Mr Bawumia declined to be interviewed by These shortcomings have increased discontent. A recent survey by Afrobarometer, a continental pollster, found that 95% of Ghanaians consider the presidency corrupt; 74% said corruption had risen this year; and 82% of citizens think the country is heading in the wrong direction. Yet rather than look to the opposition, voters appear cynical about politicians in general, though an independent candidate popular with young urbanites may get enough votes to force a run-off. “Ghana has become a corrupt country without apology,” says a 27-year-old woman who is not planning to vote. Some worry that the people’s contempt for the institutions of democracy could threaten a peaceful transition, particularly if the result is close. Whoever loses is likely to cry foul.All this is bad news not just for Ghana, but for west Africa as a whole. In recent months jihadist violence in the Sahel has continued to spill over into neighbouring states. A Ghana-led initiative to prevent this is widely considered a failure and is unlikely to be revived if Ghana is grappling with domestic turmoil after the election. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, all ruled by military juntas, are planning to pull out of the Economic Community of West African States, which would cripple one of the only forums for regional co-operation. Strong leadership from Ghana, as well as Nigeria, will be needed to coax them back in.Whoever wins on December 7th must dampen discontent at home and strengthen Ghana’s role as a source of stability in the region. Otherwise, he will risk squandering the country’s political legacy.
